New US tariff structure
On 2 April 2025, US President Donald Trump announced new tariffs, adding to the 25% tariff previously imposed on aluminum, steel and automative products. The universal baseline 10% tariff rate took effect on 5 April, while higher tariffs for countries with large trade deficits in goods with the US were implemented five days later, with rates proportional to deficit size. These higher rates affected 17 sub-Saharan African countries (see Table below). However, just hours after the steeper tariffs came into force, the bond market turmoil prompted President Trump to suspend them for 90 days to allow countries to negotiate better trade deals. The major exception was China, whose tariff was raised to 145% as punishment for its retaliatory measures against the US. The baseline 10% tariff remains in place for other countries.
Tariffs on sub-Saharan African countries represent unfair burden
The tariffs effectively penalize African states for the US’s demand for their natural resources, including critical minerals. For instance, key US imports from South Africa (subject to a 30% tariff rate) include minerals such as platinum. Similarly, Zambia and DR Congo face high tariff rates due to US demand for critical raw materials: copper from Zambia and copper, cobalt, niobium and tantalum from DR Congo. Côte d’Ivoire, which faces a 21% tariff rate, primarily exports cocoa to the US. As the world’s leading cocoa producer, Côte d’Ivoire accounts for approximately 45% of global production, while the US can only grow cocoa in very limited regions like Hawaii and southern Florida. Angola (32%) and Nigeria (14%) face higher tariff rates primarily because of their crude oil and natural gas exports to the US.
The tariffs also undermine African efforts to diversify their economies and boost their manufacturing sectors. These efforts were previously supported by the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which President Bill Clinton enacted in 2000. Currently, AGOA provides 32 sub-Saharan African countries with duty-free access to the US market for approximately 7,000 products. Since the White House hasn’t specified otherwise, the new tariffs are presumed to override AGOA’s duty-free provisions. The countries hardest hit by these tariffs – Lesotho (50%), Madagascar (47%) and Mauritius (40%) – are effectively being penalized for developing their garment industries under the AGOA incentives.
Response options for African countries
African nations’ responses to US tariffs will depend on several factors: the importance of US exports to their economy, the specific goods exported, and the tariff rates applied to those goods. The greater the importance of US-bound exports to a country’s economy, the more motivated that country will be to negotiate lower tariffs, especially when these tariffs affect their main export goods. Oil, gas and many critical minerals remain exempt from tariffs. However, political and geopolitical considerations will also play a role in these negotiations.
Option 1: Limited response.
Angola is unlikely to suffer significantly from high US tariff rates for two reasons. First, its primary US export, crude oil, is exempt from tariffs. Second, US exports represent only a small portion of Angola’s total exports, with China, India, France, Netherlands and Spain being its key export markets. China dominates as its largest market.
Nevertheless, Angola is likely to maintain friendly relations with the Trump administration to preserve US support for the Lobito Corridor deal established under the Joe Biden administration. This corridor provides the fastest export route for minerals from the resource-rich Copperbelt region in DR Congo and Zambia to the US and Europe via Angola’s port of Lobito. President João Lourenço also aims to diversify Angola’s trading and investment partners beyond China.
Kenya and Ghana, both subject to “only” the baseline 10% tariff rate, could actually benefit from their competitors’ higher tariffs. For instance, increased tariffs on other garment exporters like Lesotho (50%), Cambodia (49%) and Bangladesh (37%) could boost Kenya’s garment industry and its US exports. Additionally, cocoa from Côte d’Ivoire might be smuggled across the border and exported to the US from Ghana.
Option 2: Negotiate better terms.
Countries may try to negotiate better trade terms by offering lower tariffs on US imports, providing preferential access to certain US goods, or making other concessions.
Zimbabwe, facing a 18% levy on its US exports (primarily tobacco, minerals like gold, nickel, platinum, and ferroalloys), has already suspended tariffs on US imported goods. Since the US is not a major export partner for Zimbabwe, this move likely aims to improve diplomatic relations with the Trump administration. President Mnangagwa and his allies probably hope President Trump will lift targeted sanctions imposed by the Biden administration over corruption and human rights violations.
Lesotho, heavily dependent on denim and diamond exports to the US, is eager to negotiate a better trade deal to protect its garment industry. However, as a small, resource-limited country, Lesotho will struggle to purchase enough US products to reverse the trade deficit.
The recent 90-day pause on higher tariffs demonstrate the US’s willingness to negotiate, likely encouraging more African countries to come to the table. The US administration has indicated that negotiations may extend beyond tariffs – countries might agree to purchase more US energy or military equipment or pledge geopolitical alliance to the US.
Option 3: Redirect exports to alternative markets.
South Africa’s trade minister Parks Tau suggested African countries should diversify trading partners and shift US exports to countries from the global south, including China. South Africa is already considering this approach for citrus, its agricultural product most vulnerable to the new tariff rates. However, potential new destinations – particularly China, which faces its own harsh US tariffs – may not be able to absorb all these redirected products.
Simultaneously, South Africa is open to negotiate exemptions and quotas, though some government officials prefer a stronger stance against the US, such as withholding mineral supplies.
Since many critical minerals are currently exempt from new tariffs, these exports are unlikely to be redirected elsewhere. However, these exemptions also make it more difficult for African mineral-exporting countries to reduce their trade surplus with the US.
Africa cannot escape the fallout of widening US-China trade storm
Regardless of which strategy African countries adopt, an escalating and prolonged US-China trade war will have increasingly devastating consequences for economies across Africa and worldwide. Higher tariffs will likely erode investor confidence and reduce consumer demand globally, forcing businesses to close and increasing unemployment and poverty. The exorbitant US tariff rates will worsen China’s already weak domestic demand, further slowing its economic growth. Since China is Africa’s largest trading partner and African countries heavily rely on export revenues, they will bear the brunt of China’s economic slowdown.
Although the US expects these tariffs to boost its domestic manufacturing sector, building new factories and training workers requires significant time. The sudden implementation of tariffs and intensifying trade war with China creates a time constraint that likely means costs will exceed benefits. The 90-day tariff suspension will not be sufficient to counteract the negative impacts of the ongoing and escalating US-China trade conflict.
Table: US tariff rates for sub-Saharan African countries
