Election in Côte d'Ivoire (Update)

When:

The presidential election is scheduled for 25 October 2025.

Main contenders:

Although incumbent Alassane Ouattara of the ruling Rally of Houphouëtists for Democracy and Peace (RHDP) party has not yet announced his candidacy, he is expected to run. If he does, he would be the frontrunner due to divided opposition, RHDP’s control of key state institutions, and his strong track record on economic growth and security.

The electoral competition is substantially restricted because:

• Key opposition figures are currently ineligible. Former president Laurent Gbagbo, his ex-ally Charles Blé Goudé, and former rebel leader and Prime Minister Guillaume Soro have expressed interest in running but currently cannot. Gbagbo and Blé Goudé were convicted by domestic courts for their roles in the post-election violence in 2010- 2011, while Soro was sentenced in absentia to life imprisonment for threatening state security after the 2020 presidential election. They can only participate if Ouattara grants them amnesty.
• RHDP's former coalition partner, Democratic Party of Côte d'Ivoire (PDCI-RDA), is weakened by internal conflict. The party is divided between its president Tijane Thiam and former commerce minister Jean-Louis Billion. Thiam, a former finance minister and ex-chief executive of Credit Suisse, may face disqualification over his dual nationality unless the French government officially confirms his renunciation of French citizenship in time.
• Laurent Gbagbo’s ex-wife Simone Gbagbo, is running separately. She formed the Movement of Capable Generations (MGC), and is unlikely to align with Gbagbo’s Party of African People – Côte d’Ivoire (PPA-CI) after their acrimonious divorce in 2023.
• The opposition coalition lacks unity. On 10 March 2025, 25 opposition parties – including PDCI, MGC, Blé Goudé’s Pan-African Congress of Young Patriots (Cojep) and Pascal Affi N’Guessan’s Ivorian Popular Front (FPI) – launched the Coalition for Peaceful Alternation in Côte d’Ivoire (CAP – Côte d’Ivoire). They are calling for the revision of the electoral register and political dialogue ahead of the vote. Notably, Laurent Gbagbo’s PPA-CI is absent from this coalition, and the coalition parties are unlikely to agree on a single candidate.

Implications for foreign businesses:

On the positive side:

• Ouattara’s victory would ensure continuity in economic policy, maintaining a stable and business-friendly environment.

On the negative side:

• A fourth term of Ouattara could spark legitimacy concerns, increasing the risk of election-related violence. The Constitutional Court allowed Ouattara to run in 2020 on the grounds that the revision of the 2016 constitution reset term limits. His candidacy, however, led to violent protests and the boycott of the election by opposition parties. A repeat of such unrest remains a risk, particularly if Laurent Gbagbo and Thiam remain ineligible. Ouattara’s re-election would also extend existing weaknesses of the system, such as corruption and business favoritism. Despite some anti-corruption efforts, a non-transparent allocation of contracts remains a challenge for foreign investors.