Gabon’s first presidential election since the August 2023 military coup offered no surprises. The overwhelming victory of the interim president and coup leader Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguema – he garnered over 90% of the vote at a turnout exceeding 70%, according to provisional results – highlight his popularity and electoral conditions playing in his favor. His main opponent, former Prime Minister Alain Claude Bilie-By-Nze who served under deposed President Ali Bongo, received just 3% of votes.
We expect Nguema to continue the agenda he pursued during his 19-month interim leadership. He has pledged to “restore dignity to the Gabonese people” through national development and improved living standards. His approach features state-led economic policies with substantial infrastructure investment and increased sovereignty in key sectors, particularly oil and gas. Nguema also wants to further diversify the economy away from the hydrocarbons sector. While his legitimate 7-year mandate offers certain advantages, his ambitious plans face significant challenges.
Nguema’s electoral victory is likely to ease Gabon’s access to external financial markets and facilitate the restart of negotiations with the IMF. His legitimate mandate should relieve sovereign debt and liquidity pressures that led Fitch Ratings to downgrade Gabon to CCC in January 2025. Much of the USD520 million the government managed to raise a month later was used to repurchase the 2015 Eurobond maturing in June 2025. This has offered the country temporary fiscal relief, but at significant cost, with the yield on the newly issued bond amounting to 12.7%, reflecting investor concerns over Gabon’s fiscal and political situation. Following Nguema’s electoral victory, Gabon’s Eurobonds have rallied, indicating improving investor confidence.
Unlike coup leaders in Sahel countries (Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger), Nguema has maintained good relations with Gabon’s former colonial power France and Western nations while pursuing investments from China, Russia, India UAE, Turkey and other countries. However, escalating tensions between global powers, particularly the US and China, will make this non-aligned stance increasingly difficult to maintain.
Nguema has pursued greater economic sovereignty through strategic acquisitions in key sectors. The state-owned Gabon Oil Company (GOC) recently purchased Tullow Oil and Carlyle’s Assala Energy assets using pre-emption rights. While not expropriation, these moves raise concerns about unfair competition for companies seeking to buy or sell oil assets.
Questions remain about GOC’s technical and financial capacity to develop these acquisitions. Deals backed by energy traders Gunvor and Glencore in exchange for future oil production, combined with lower-than-expected production from Assala Energy fields, threaten to increase pressure on public finances.
Despite these sovereignty efforts, the government still seeks foreign investors for offshore and onshore exploration, marginal and mature fields development, and gas monetization.
Nguema aims to increase mining contribution to GDP from 6% to 25% by 2030. Gabon possesses the world’s second-largest manganese deposits (operated primarily by Eramet subsidiary Comilog) and significant high-grade iron ore deposits at Belinga (partially developed by Australia’s Fortescue Metals Group). Gabon also has gold, phosphate, rare earth minerals, uranium and niobium resources.
Inadequate infrastructure and unreliable power supply hinder mineral development. The Belinga iron ore project alone requires over 900km of railway, a deepwater port and a hydroelectric dam. Similar infrastructure gaps threaten diversification plans for tourism, industry and agriculture.
Several infrastructure initiatives are underway, including the Ndende-Doussala highway connecting southern Gabon to the Republic of Congo. To address power shortages, the government has implemented emergency measures like connecting border towns to Equatorial Guinea’s Djibloho Hydropower Plant and contracting 70MW from Turkish supplier Karpowership. Future projects include the 125MW Owendo gas-fired power plant by state- owned Gabon Power Company and Finland’s Wärtsilä, scheduled to begin construction in June 2025.
These vast infrastructure projects require significant public and private investment, highlighting Gabon’s financial challenges. While Nguema’s electoral victory helps address political concerns, attracting multilateral lenders and investors will require the government’s fiscal discipline and commitment to transparency and economic reforms.
Despite pledges to root out corruption and mismanagement that characterized the Bongo dynasty, Nguema’s administration has faced its own challenges. In January 2025, Minister of Energy and Water Resources Jeannot Kalima was replaced following concerns over unfavorable contract terms with Karpowership, including inflated electricity prices, and supply delays.
The escalating US-China trade conflict poses additional challenges that are beyond Gabon’s control. While the US has imposed “only” baseline 10% tariff on Gabon, the impact will be felt through tariffs on China, Gabon’s key trading partner for crude oil and manganese. Slowing Chinese demand has already forced Comilog to reduce manganese production in 2024, causing labor tensions. Further decline in Chinese demand for Gabon’s exports could derail Nguema’s development plans, potentially stirring social and political unrest.
The combination of elevated public expectations, Nguema’s ambitious agenda, deteriorating public finances and unfavorable external conditions points to a negative economic and political outlook for Gabon over the next few years.